Note to Dems: take a deep breath
I think we all need to calm down about the race. The McCain bounce is ebbing away - in the national polls, he's been consistently losing about a half a point a day for almost a week now and some polls have Obama ahead. And I think Obama's doing fine - I know it's frustrating to watch him getting attacked so shamelessly, but I think McCain made the strategic error of going too negative too early. He has created the impression that he'll say anything to win (which is true) and that's a big problem for a candidate whose persona is all about "honor". And the Palin effect is also wearing off - the enthusiasm is becoming increasingly restricted to people who wouldn't have voted for Obama anyway. If Obama changes his persona too radically, it will look desperate.
If the election were October 4th, I'd be worried - but with six weeks to go, the McCain campaign is going to have trouble keeping Palin away from the media without looking like they're hiding her because they're afraid she'll screw up. And after the crazy amount of energy and surprise in the aftermath of Palin's nomination, she has nowhere to go but down - I think they peaked immediately and will simply not be able to recover that level of enthusiasm.
No one (not even Republicans, in their heart of hearts) seriously believes that she is qualified or knowledgeable or competent enough to be president, which is worrying in itself, but - worse for McCain - makes him look like an opportunist who isn't serious about the important issues facing us. And now, with the latest financial news, McCain looks especially weak.
So - I wouldn't presume to make predictions, and I am concerned about the race. But I think the best thing for Obama actually is to keep looking like a serious candidate. He has been very strong and very critical of McCain, but he's not getting hysterical - that's good, I think. There's nothing he can do to appeal to the cultural elements who would never vote for him - and those are the people who tend to respond positively to angry, aggressive candidates.
Obama's trying to attract the independents who tend to vote on issues. They've been suspicious of Obama, because they haven't yet got to know him - the more they see and hear him, the more positively they respond. What the campaign needs to do is be more effective in getting across the fact that Obama will lower taxes on more middle and low income people; Obama will provide universal access to health care; Obama has a serious alternative energy strategy; Obama has been the toughest (including even McCain!!) on Pakistan/Afghanistan.
That's how I see it now - a week ago, I was more worried. We'll see how it looks next week!
If the election were October 4th, I'd be worried - but with six weeks to go, the McCain campaign is going to have trouble keeping Palin away from the media without looking like they're hiding her because they're afraid she'll screw up. And after the crazy amount of energy and surprise in the aftermath of Palin's nomination, she has nowhere to go but down - I think they peaked immediately and will simply not be able to recover that level of enthusiasm.
No one (not even Republicans, in their heart of hearts) seriously believes that she is qualified or knowledgeable or competent enough to be president, which is worrying in itself, but - worse for McCain - makes him look like an opportunist who isn't serious about the important issues facing us. And now, with the latest financial news, McCain looks especially weak.
So - I wouldn't presume to make predictions, and I am concerned about the race. But I think the best thing for Obama actually is to keep looking like a serious candidate. He has been very strong and very critical of McCain, but he's not getting hysterical - that's good, I think. There's nothing he can do to appeal to the cultural elements who would never vote for him - and those are the people who tend to respond positively to angry, aggressive candidates.
Obama's trying to attract the independents who tend to vote on issues. They've been suspicious of Obama, because they haven't yet got to know him - the more they see and hear him, the more positively they respond. What the campaign needs to do is be more effective in getting across the fact that Obama will lower taxes on more middle and low income people; Obama will provide universal access to health care; Obama has a serious alternative energy strategy; Obama has been the toughest (including even McCain!!) on Pakistan/Afghanistan.
That's how I see it now - a week ago, I was more worried. We'll see how it looks next week!