The win-win?
The big political news today was the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll that revealed that the government shutdown has been a disaster for the GOP, which is something that everyone with a whit of sense and objectivity has known all along. The only thing surprising about the results was how unambiguously, unspinnably abysmal they were for the Republicans, who are now more unpopular than either party has ever been since this poll began asking this question in 1992.
Suddenly the very real possibility of defeat in next year's mid-term elections is looming and Republicans are in a mood to talk. What's more, they're in a mood to strike a civil and constructive tone in their accounts of negotiations with President Obama, which is surely a sign of desperation verging on panic.
Republicans have floated the possibility of a short-term deal to raise the debt ceiling for six weeks or thereabouts. The White House and Senate leadership have made clear that they will not entertain a deal on raising the debt ceiling that does not also end the government shutdown. The White House would seem to have the upper hand at this point.
But what occurs to me this evening is that there is actually a sudden alignment of interests between the White House and the Republican leadership that could pave the way to a bigger settlement. It's in the interests of both parties to negotiate a long-term deal to refund the government and raise the debt ceiling for a year or more. The Democratic interest in this is obvious to all - they don't want to have to go through these hostage negotiation scenarios every couple of months while there's an agenda to implement and governing to do. But, after the political debacle of the past ten days, a long-term deal may be just as important, if not more so, to Republicans, who don't want to have to take another major political hit like this in an election year.
A long-term deal would neutralize the Tea-Party's ability to hold the political process hostage to their untenable reactionary demands, thereby preventing them from doing further damage to the already-tarnished Republican "brand" during an important election year. Tea Partiers in severely gerrymandered districts don't have to worry about re-election. They also tend to be contemptuous of their own party's establishment and leadership and tend to view any sort of compromise as tantamount to capitulation. In short, they're more or less impossible to control with either carrots or sticks - they've got all the carrots they need, and they have pachydermous hides. If another battle should erupt over funding the government or raising the debt ceiling sometime before the elections next November, the Tea Party could make enough unpopular mischief to set the Republicans up for an historic defeat.
Another episode like this one and the GOP could actually lose the House in 2014. If that happens, it will be the Tea Party's doing. More reasonable - and more vulnerable - Republicans understand this. A long term deal is what's best for America, and what's best for the President and the Democrats. But it also happens to be what's best for Republicans. So, suddenly, there's hope. How's that for an irony at the end of the tunnel?
Suddenly the very real possibility of defeat in next year's mid-term elections is looming and Republicans are in a mood to talk. What's more, they're in a mood to strike a civil and constructive tone in their accounts of negotiations with President Obama, which is surely a sign of desperation verging on panic.
Republicans have floated the possibility of a short-term deal to raise the debt ceiling for six weeks or thereabouts. The White House and Senate leadership have made clear that they will not entertain a deal on raising the debt ceiling that does not also end the government shutdown. The White House would seem to have the upper hand at this point.
But what occurs to me this evening is that there is actually a sudden alignment of interests between the White House and the Republican leadership that could pave the way to a bigger settlement. It's in the interests of both parties to negotiate a long-term deal to refund the government and raise the debt ceiling for a year or more. The Democratic interest in this is obvious to all - they don't want to have to go through these hostage negotiation scenarios every couple of months while there's an agenda to implement and governing to do. But, after the political debacle of the past ten days, a long-term deal may be just as important, if not more so, to Republicans, who don't want to have to take another major political hit like this in an election year.
A long-term deal would neutralize the Tea-Party's ability to hold the political process hostage to their untenable reactionary demands, thereby preventing them from doing further damage to the already-tarnished Republican "brand" during an important election year. Tea Partiers in severely gerrymandered districts don't have to worry about re-election. They also tend to be contemptuous of their own party's establishment and leadership and tend to view any sort of compromise as tantamount to capitulation. In short, they're more or less impossible to control with either carrots or sticks - they've got all the carrots they need, and they have pachydermous hides. If another battle should erupt over funding the government or raising the debt ceiling sometime before the elections next November, the Tea Party could make enough unpopular mischief to set the Republicans up for an historic defeat.
Another episode like this one and the GOP could actually lose the House in 2014. If that happens, it will be the Tea Party's doing. More reasonable - and more vulnerable - Republicans understand this. A long term deal is what's best for America, and what's best for the President and the Democrats. But it also happens to be what's best for Republicans. So, suddenly, there's hope. How's that for an irony at the end of the tunnel?