the VP debate: on winning and losing

I know I keep saying (and writing) this, but it's important: we must regard the debates not as isolated events, but as incidents within the context of the whole campaign.

What matters essentially is not who gets the better of whom in the particular arena, but the impressions the candidates make on the viewing public, and how these impressions exacerbate, mitigate, complement or contradict pre-exisiting impressions.

Palin certainly exceeded expectations and did a good job of holding her own. But, ultimately, she did not reverse the public's sense that she is not a plausible president. To say as much is not an insult to Palin - she did as well as she could have done given who she is and who Joe Biden is. If you want to claim that this constitues a victory in St. Louis, then go ahead. But victory in that limited sense is beside the point, unless you are already a committed Republican.

In most of the polls, Independents gave the debate to Biden by a 2 to 1 margin. That's what will matter on November 4th - which is when the only real victory will be won.

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